Starting with the basic ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2018 and comparing them with February 1, 2017 for all areas & types:
Active Listings (excluding UCB): 17,211 versus 19,863 last year - down 13.4% - but up 3.1% from 16,697 last month
Active Listings (including UCB): 21,209 versus 23,632 last year - down 10.3% - but up 8.2% compared with 19,606 last month
Pending Listings: 6,041 versus 6,095 last year - down 0.9% - but up 29.2% from 4,674 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,039 versus 9,864 last year - up 1.8% - and up 32.4% from 7,583 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,165 versus 6,097 last year - up 1.1% - but down 14.4% from 7,204 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $160.66 versus $146.73 last year - up 9.5% - and up 2.6% from $156.61 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $245,000 versus $225,000 last year - up 8.9% - but unchanged from $245,000 last month
Although we have 3.1% more active listings than last month, this is not an impressive increase for January and we are still down 13.4% compared to a year ago. The drop in supply was most severe for home below $200,000. However all price ranges up to $1 million have fewer homes for sale than last year.
The swing away from using Pending status toward UCB continued with Under Contract listings rising 32.4% during the month to reach almost 2% higher than last year. Pending listing numbers were less robust.
The sales count managed a small 1% increase over last year, hampered by the lack of supply. There is no doubt that if more affordable homes were available the sales count would be much higher.
The average price per sq. ft. for closed sales rose a surprising 2.6% from December. January is usually a weak month for pricing, so this is an unusually strong performance. The median sales price was unchanged. The strong $/SF number was due to higher average pricing as well as smaller average sq. ft numbers. It all counts, however, and appreciation using $/SF is almost into double figures. We need to be clear that appreciation does not apply equally to all price points. The strongest appreciation is occurring where supply is tightest - at the low end.
The Southeast Valley is in a different situation from most of of the Greater Phoenix area. This is because supply has dropped much further in this geographic area and annual sales counts are falling as a result. Sellers love having so much competition between their buyers but agents wish there were more listings.