Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

 

For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $162.32 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.4% or 66 cents from the $162.98 we now measure for April 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $161.80, with a 90% confidence range of $158.56 to $165.04. The actual result was slightly higher than the mid-point, and well within our 90% confidence range. As expected, we saw a slight fall back after the very strong rise over the prior month.

 

On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $166.54, up 0.8% from the reading for April 15. Among those pending listings we have 96.8% normal, 1.1% in REOs and 2.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix is little changed from last month, with a small reduction in distressed and bank-owned homes.

 

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $163.59, which is 0.8% above the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $160.32 to $166.86.

After a short-term consolidation over the last month we anticipate prices moving ahead once again between May and June.

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