Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.
For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $162.00 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.2% or 37 cents from the $161.63 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $162.13, with a 90% confidence range of $158.89 to $165.37. The actual result was just a little lower than the mid-point, but only by 13 cents or 0.08%.
On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $169.73, up 2.2% from the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 96.5% normal, 1.6% in REOs and 1.9% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix is little changed from last month, with a small increase in short sales and pre-foreclosures and also a small increase in bank-owned homes.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $165.15, which is 1.6% above the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $161.85 to $168.45.
So we are expecting the small rebound during late September and early October to be followed by a much larger one during late October and early November. This conforms to a normal seasonal pattern.
The current weakening demand trend is unlikely to affect sales pricing until 2019 at the earliest.
