AZ Home Prices Not Likely to Fall

Over the last week we have moved from a daily fall of 2.5 to a daily fall of 1.6. This trend is favorable and it now looks unlikely that the CMI* will drop into the balanced zone of 90 to 110 any time soon.

This is because active listings are starting to fall while listings under contract have started to rise. The CMI continues to decline because we are still seeing sales volumes decline. Given the state of listings under contract that fall in sales volume appears to have a limited lifespan and it should also stabilize fairly soon. If sales and listings under contract are stable or rising and active listings are falling then guess what - the CMI will start to rise again, indicating that prices are under upward pressure. We cannot tell you when that will occur, but it is starting to look likely rather than unlikely. Of course this depends on the weeks ahead continuing to follow current trends and in today's environment everything is uncertain. Perhaps, when they see more listings going under contract, sellers will emerge from the places they have been hiding. Perhaps the number of people losing their jobs will put a cap on how many buyers we see. Whatever occurs, you can see it first by checking the daily updates here at the Cromford® Report.

*Cromford Market Index (CMI) 100 is balance, under 100 is a buyer's market and over 100 is a seller's market