Home Prices Continue to Rise Around the Valley

Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days. For the monthly period ending January 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $157.68 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.1% or $1.65 from the $156.03 we now measure for December 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $155.13, with a 90% confidence range of $152.03 to $158.23. The actual result was a lot stronger than the mid-point but still within the confidence range. It is very common f

Housing Supply Down...Demand Strong

A recap of the real estate market in the Phoenix Valley for buyers and seller... For Buyers: 2018 is not going to be any less competitive for buyers in general. The market is starting out with 14% fewer listings compared to 2017, however there are 35% fewer listings under $200K, a price range that commands 34% market share of all MLS resales in Greater Phoenix. 51% of MLS sales were between $200K-$400K in 2017, and supply in this range is down just 7%. 14% of sales were between $400-$1M and supply is down nearly 9%. Only the market over $1M is starting 2018 with 4% more for sale, 2017 sales over $1M were less than 2% of the market. For Sellers: Over 51% of newly constructed condominiums, t

Lack of Supply is the Big Issue in the Greater Phoenix Market

Supply, or rather the lack of it, is the big issue in the Greater Phoenix market below $1 million. It was already low 12 months ago, but in some areas it has dropped dramatically since then. Here is a table comparing the days of inventory under $1 million (excluding UCB and CCBS listings) in December 2017 with December 2016: I would say anything below 50 is unusually low and below 40 is extremely low. Chandler and Gilbert are struggling with a supply crisis. Tempe and Mesa are not far behind them. Transaction volumes are dropping due to a lack of homes to buy. For the Southeast Valley, we are no longer in territory where the market is guaranteed to be well-behaved. Unless we see a major incr

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