Mid Month AZ Housing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days. For the monthly period ending February 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $159.13 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.0% or $1.53 from the $157.60 we now measure for January 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $159.14, with a 90% confidence range of $155.95 to $162.31. The actual result was just 1 cent below the mid-point, which means the forecast we gave last month was our most accurate ever. On February 15 the pendin

MLS Sales Over $1M up 36%: Inventory Under $150K Down 62%

For Buyers: Buyers continue to have a tough time finding inventory on the low end of the market. New listings overall are down 9% year-to-date thus far, which doesn’t help matters. Compared to February last year, inventory under $150K is down 62% and down 43% between $150K and $200K. Mid-priced inventory between $200K and $500K is down 11% and down 7% between $500K and $1M. Only inventory over $1M is up nearly 2% over last year. Seller concessions are also down so far this year. After hovering around 27% for the past 2.5 years, closings with seller concessions dropped down to 23% as the seller market has strengthened in the new year. Homes sold between $150K and $200K had the highest percen

AZ Housing Market Update...February 2018

Starting with the basic ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2018 and comparing them with February 1, 2017 for all areas & types: Active Listings (excluding UCB): 17,211 versus 19,863 last year - down 13.4% - but up 3.1% from 16,697 last month Active Listings (including UCB): 21,209 versus 23,632 last year - down 10.3% - but up 8.2% compared with 19,606 last month Pending Listings: 6,041 versus 6,095 last year - down 0.9% - but up 29.2% from 4,674 last month Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,039 versus 9,864 last year - up 1.8% - and up 32.4% from 7,583 last month Monthly Sales: 6,165 versus 6,097 last year - up 1.1% - but down 14.4% from 7,204 last month Monthly Average S

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E: Raegen@RaegenJohnsonGroup.com



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