Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days. For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $162.32 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.4% or 66 cents from the $162.98 we now measure for April 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $161.80, with a 90% confidence range of $158.56 to $165.04. The actual result was slightly higher than the mid-point, and well within our 90% confidence range. As expected, we saw a slight fall back after the very
For Buyers: Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under $200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K has actually risen
Starting with the basic ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2018 and comparing them with May 1, 2017 for all areas & types: Active Listings (excluding UCB): 16,329 versus 19,228 last year - down 15.1% - and down 3.8% from 16,972 last month Active Listings (including UCB): 21,440 versus 24,472 last year - down 12.4% - and down 1.7% compared with 21,800 last month Pending Listings: 7,393 versus 7,552 last year - down 2.1% - but up 3.7% from 7,128 last month Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,504 versus 12,796 last year - down 2.3% - but up 4.3% from 11,985 last month Monthly Sales: 9,157 versus 8,827 last year - up 3.7% - but down 5.1% from 9,649 last month Monthly Average Sales
