AZ Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $162.00 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.2% or 37 cents from the $161.63 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $162.13, with a 90% confidence range of $158.89 to $165.37. The actual result was just a little lower than the mid-point, but only by 13 cents or 0.08%.

On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $169.73, up 2.2% from the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 96.5% normal, 1.6% in REOs and 1.9% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix is little changed from last month, with a small increase in short sales and pre-foreclosures and also a small increase in bank-owned homes.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $165.15, which is 1.6% above the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $161.85 to $168.45.

So we are expecting the small rebound during late September and early October to be followed by a much larger one during late October and early November. This conforms to a normal seasonal pattern.

The current weakening demand trend is unlikely to affect sales pricing until 2019 at the earliest.

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