AZ Housing Market Supply Hitting Historical Low
The market is becoming so lop-sided it is approaching absurdity. Demand has recovered and is now close to normal in most areas. The bizarre situation is all to do with supply. New listings remain stubbornly low, especially in the price ranges that are most popular with buyers. Only during a brief period in 2005 at the height of the housing bubble have we seen the supply indexes this low, but some ZIP codes have it worse than others. If we compare the number of active listings for single-family homes without a contract with this time last year, the following are the ZIP codes with the largest percentage decline in homes for sale:
Chandler 85224 - down 91%
Glendale 85306 - down 88%
El Mirage 85335 - down 87%
Avondale 85392 - down 86%
Glendale 85307 - down 81%
Phoenix 85027 - down 81%
Mesa 85204 - down 79%
Surprise 85378 - down 79%
Maricopa 85138 - down 78%
Phoenix 85003 - down 76%
Phoenix 85022 - down 76%
Glendale 85304 - down 75%
Phoenix 85031 - down 75%
Phoenix 85035 - down 75%
Tolleson 85353 - down 74%
Glendale 85308 - down 74%
Phoenix 85083 - down 73%
Laveen 85339 - down 73%
Phoenix 85054 - down 73%
Phoenix 85029 - down 73%
There is currently little sign of a change in direction, but the lack of supply is driving many buyers towards new homes instead of re-sales. New homes are selling faster than last year and faster than they can be built, so supply will shortly become a major problem for the developers too.
Once again, here is our table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities. The Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
