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A Far More Positive Picture for Sellers Than Expected

Below is he Cromford® Market Index numbers for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities in the Valley. The Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Things continue to get better for sellers, a trend which started back on November 30, although you would not think so based on some of the gloomy commentaries in the media.

The average change in the CMI values is +1.9% which compares favorably with +0.3% last week.

We see 12 cities showing improvements for sellers and only 5 showing deterioration over the past month. All 17 cities are seller's markets (over 110).

Paradise Valley and Avondale are leading the recovery, up 12% and 11% respectively. This shows it is not confined to a specific price range, as Paradise Valley is our most expensive city while Avondale is among the least expensive.

Cave Creek has the least favorable market index trend of the 17 (down 9%). This is because demand has been declining while supply remains flat. Among the cities that experienced a decline during the past month, Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Surprise and Glendale have shown a rise over the past week. This is another positive signal as we enter the new year.

The table above is a far more positive picture for sellers than we were expecting to see based on the situation in mid November. Although demand is certainly weaker than last year, supply remains far below normal and insufficient to meet even the subdued demand. Consequently sellers remain firmly in control of the market and prices will continue to rise while this situation continues.


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