Market Summary for the Beginning of June 2019
The month of May 2019 was a monster. New all-time records were set for sales units and dollar volumes through ARMLS, surpassing not only 2018 but the bubble year of 2005.
But let us start with the basics - the ARMLS numbers for June 1, 2019 compared with June 1, 2018 for all areas & types:
Active Listings (excluding UCB): 16,869 versus 16,018 last year - up 5.3% - but down 3.7% from 17,513 last month
Active Listings (including UCB): 21,799 versus 20,809 last year - up 4.8% - but down 7.8% compared with 23,650 last month
Pending Listings: 7,015 versus 6,608 last year - up 6.2% - but down 4.2% from 7,326 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 11,945 versus 11,399 last year - up 4.8% - but down 4.2% from 12,463 last month
Monthly Sales: 10,466 versus 10,104 last year - up 3.6% - and up 8.3% from 9,667 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $172.11 versus $164.23 last year - up 4.8% - but down 0.01% from $172.20 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $278,000 versus $265,000 last year - up 4.9% - and up 3.0% from $270,000 last month
10,466 is the largest unit sales count we have ever measured for a calendar month. The previous record high was 10,345 which was set in June 2011 at the height of the REO feeding frenzy.
Dollar volume for May was $3.647 billion. The previous high was $3.354 billion which was set in May last year. The previous high was $3.245 billion set in June 2005 at the height of the real estate bubble.
These were not the only new records. The monthly median sales price of $278,000 is a new record high. The annual median sales price is also at a new record high at $265,900.
Average price per sq. ft. is nowhere near setting a new record, because the homes being sold today are much larger than those being sold at the last peak. The monthly average $/SF record is $190.05 set in May 2006.
May 2019 contained 22 working days, the same as May 2018 and April 2019, so no mental adjustments need to be made to these numbers to account for any difference in working days.
Supply is still higher than last year, but it is dropping faster than it did at this point a year ago. New listings are arriving at roughly the same rate as 2018 so the reason supply is falling is that homes are going under contract faster than last year.
May is usually the strongest month in each year, so we can expect monthly volumes to decline for the rest of 2019. We are also reaching the point where prices go a little soft for 3 or 4 months. This is mostly caused by the mix of homes sold because the high end is much weaker during the 100 degree weather. Wealthy people can afford to be somewhere other than Phoenix during the Summer.
It is unlikely that anyone would have predicted a May like this back in January. June looks pretty good too, but it has almost no chance of beating May. June 2019 starts and ends with a weekend and has only 20 working days, so we should expect a 9% fall in sales and dollar volume during June compared with May. It also starts with 4.2% fewer homes under contract. Set your expectations accordingly.