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Average Price Per Square Foot Hits Record Highs

Below is our table of Cromford® Market Index* values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities.

For the first time since June 4, we have a red dot in the table. Maricopa's CMI has faded slightly over the last month, despite being close to a record high.

The average monthly increase in the CMI remains very high at 23%, but this is down significantly from 32% last week.

It is the turn of the more expensive areas to power ahead for sellers, with Fountain Hills up 41% and Scottsdale up 36%. The Southwest Valley is also looking strong with Buckeye up 37% and Goodyear up 33%.

We see the more expensive areas heating up, including Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley, all of which are seeing further falls in supply over the past week.

The monthly average price per sq. ft. has accelerated dramatically over the past 4 weeks, as can be seen from the chart below:

We can see clearly that a gap has opened up compared with last year that is far larger than between any previous 2 years since 2013.

Seasonality is suddenly out the window. We usually see luxury home sales peak during the second quarter and fall sharply during the heat of the third quarter. In 2020, the opposite has been true, The COVID-19 pandemic caused luxury sales to plummet during the second quarter only to recover stronger than ever during the second quarter.

There is an underlying upward trend in pricing for all price ranges, but the strength or weakness of the luxury market causes the short term seasonal effects.

*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.


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