GET UPDATED ON GREATER PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET

There has been so much misinformation about the real estate market in the national media lately, and our goal is always to provide clients with accurate, real time market data. As such, we subscribe to The Cromford® Report, to help educate you about what is really happening in our local real estate market.

Did you know that Greater Phoenix is back in a Seller Market? Our market has changed over the past 60 days, and 12 out of our 17 major cities in the Valley are now Seller Markets. There are only a handful of Buyer Market cities left: Buckeye, Maricopa, and Queen Creek.

Presented on March 2, 2023 SUPPLY = 35% below normal, and dropping

DEMAND = 18% below normal, but rising

NEW LISTINGS = Down 16.3% from this time last year; this is the absolute lowest number of new listings going back to 2001. We need more inventory!

LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT = Down 24% from February 2022

DAYS ON MARKET = 33; back to a normal range

MEDIAN SALES PRICE = $415,000 – this has been flat for 3 months

** From May 2022 to December 2022, the median sales price declined 13.5% but has stabilized

ANNUAL MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT APPRECIATION= Down 4.7% Year-Over-Year (YOY) and will continue to be negative until at least July due to the rapid appreciation we experienced last year

PRICE REDUCTIONS = Are declining; only 13.4% of listings had a price reduction in the last week of February 2023; this indicates less pressure on Sellers due to low supply

** median price reduction was $10,000, but varies by price point

CONCESSIONS = 48% of all sales in February had seller paid concessions (down from 51% in January); median concession is $9,362. Often, we see these concessions being used by buyers to buydown their interest rate.

SALES PRICE VS. LIST PRICE RATIO = 97.2% of list price under $1M; 95% of list price over $1M

SUMMARY

Greater Phoenix is back in a Seller Market (tracking 2015)
Cash buyers have retreated, and FHA/first time home buyers are stepping up.
We are seeing less downward pressure on price due to fewer new listings hitting the market.

What’s reasonable to expect in the coming weeks/months?

For the next 3-5 months at least, YOY appreciation rates will be negative.
Rate buydowns will continue to be a part of seller costs until rates and affordability reach an optimum level and/or seller equity runs out.
Contract ratios will change with interest rates. Mortgage rate increases could slow demand and push market back into balance if they are sustained.