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Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $162.32 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 0.4% or 66 cents from the $162.98 we now measure for April 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $161.80, with a 90% confidence range of $158.56 to $165.04. The actual result was slightly higher than the mid-point, and well within our 90% confidence range. As expected, we saw a slight fall back after the very strong rise over the prior month.

On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $166.54, up 0.8% from the reading for April 15. Among those pending listings we have 96.8% normal, 1.1% in REOs and 2.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix is little changed from last month, with a small reduction in distressed and bank-owned homes.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $163.59, which is 0.8% above the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $160.32 to $166.86.

After a short-term consolidation over the last month we anticipate prices moving ahead once again between May and June.

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