Monday Morning Real Estate Mojo

11 minutes ago
11 min read

August 24, 2026

Edition #203

Mojo defined

1. A term used for self-confidence, self-assuredness.

2. The basis for belief in ones self in a situation.

3. Efficacy to bolster confidence.

4. Ability to bounce back.

There has been so much misinformation about the real estate market in the national media lately...our goal is always to provide our clients with accurate, real time market data.

Phoenix Housing Market: Stability on the Surface, Shifts Underneath

The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to send mixed signals as we move through the final stretch of summer. Overall conditions have improved slightly for sellers compared with a month ago, but where you live — and the price point you're in — continues to make a significant difference.

The average Cromford Market Index (CMI) is up 1.9% over the past month. That's slightly below last week's 2.1% improvement, and much of the upward movement continues to be driven by the higher-end Northeast Valley.

Paradise Valley remains the standout, while Fountain Hills posted a healthy 10% improvement and Scottsdale gained 6%. Outside of those areas, however, positive movement was relatively modest at 3% or less.

A Tale of Two Valleys

Demand remains relatively weak across much of Greater Phoenix, but we're beginning to see some geographic shifts.

The Southeast Valley has improved somewhat, while the West Valley has become the most buyer-friendly part of the metro area. Buckeye, Peoria, and Glendale are currently showing some of the strongest movement in favor of buyers.

Of the 18 cities tracked by the Cromford Report:

9 are in seller's markets
3 are balanced
6 are in buyer's markets

Ten cities are moving in a direction favorable to sellers, while eight are moving toward buyers. Gilbert also made a small move this week, transitioning from a balanced market into a very mild seller's market.

The takeaway is that there really isn't one "Phoenix housing market" right now. Conditions can look very different depending on the city, neighborhood, and price range.

What Are Home Prices Actually Doing?

This month's pricing numbers provide a good example of why headlines based on averages don't always tell the whole story.

For the monthly period ending August 15, the average sales price per square foot fell 3.6%, from $303.74 in July to $292.77 in August.

That sounds significant — but there's more to the story.

Luxury sales can have an outsized impact on the average price per square foot. When we instead look at the median price per square foot, the movement is much less dramatic.

Median price per square foot declined from $254.86 to $252.12, a decrease of approximately 1.1% for the month. It's also still about 0.4% higher than a year ago.

The overall median sales price tells a similar story:

August 2026: $449,900 July 2026: $451,000 August 2025: $440,000

So while prices have softened slightly this summer, the median sales price remains higher than it was at this time last year.

What Happens Next?

The Cromford Report is forecasting a September 15 median sales price of approximately $448,000, with a projected range of $445,000 to $456,000.

Median price per square foot is forecast at approximately $251, with a projected range of $249 to $254.

In other words, we could see a little more price softening over the next month, but nothing in the current forecast suggests a dramatic decline.

It's also important to remember that we're in the middle of the Phoenix summer. Historically, this is one of the weakest periods of the year for our housing market. Fewer buyers want to spend their weekends touring homes when temperatures are well into the triple digits, and seasonal patterns can influence both demand and pricing.

One Trend Worth Watching

There is another number in this month's report that deserves attention: pre-foreclosure activity is increasing.

Among properties currently under contract, approximately:

94.6% are normal sales
3.9% are pre-foreclosures
1.5% are lender-owned (REO)

A year ago, normal sales represented 97.5% of listings under contract.

That's a noticeable change, but perspective is important. Distressed activity remains low by historical standards. During the aftermath of the housing crash, normal transactions represented less than 25% of the market at times. Even between 2013 and 2019, normal sales averaged around 85%.

So this isn't 2008 all over again.

However, after years of extremely low distress, the trend has changed direction. Pre-foreclosure activity has been increasing, particularly during the past six months, making it something worth monitoring as we head into fall.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For buyers, particularly those shopping in the West Valley, today's market can provide more negotiating leverage. Longer market times and softer demand may create opportunities to negotiate price, closing-cost assistance, rate buydowns, or repairs.

For sellers, pricing and presentation continue to matter. Buyers have choices, and homes that are priced based on where the market is today — rather than where it was a year or two ago — are in a much stronger position to attract attention and ultimately sell.

And for everyone, the biggest takeaway may be this: don't let one national or even Phoenix-wide statistic determine what you think your home is worth.

Paradise Valley is behaving very differently from Buckeye. Scottsdale is behaving differently from Peoria. Luxury pricing is behaving differently from the entry-level market.

Real estate has always been local, but in today's Greater Phoenix market, it's becoming increasingly hyperlocal.

Source: The Cromford Report, August 2026.

*Cromford Market Index™ (CMI) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

What Buyers Can Afford—and What Sellers Need to Know

For Buyers:

The topic of affordability is hot right now, especially when it comes to first time buyers. However, often the only measure quoted in articles is the median or average sales price without identifying what that looks like. In 2026 to date, the median size single family home sold in Greater Phoenix is 2,001 square feet, with a median sales price of $450,000. This is larger than what many first-time homebuyers need or want with their first home. With that in mind, below are the median sizes of homes purchased within different budget tiers this year:

Growth areas like Pinal County, Buckeye, and Surprise offer larger new homes for a buyer’s budget with attractive incentives that cover closing costs and even buy down the mortgage rate. Fewer homes come on the market during the summer, so sellers are under less pressure to reduce their prices. However, the spring season is over and fewer showings means buyers have an easier time landing homes in the sub-$400K price ranges, which have been very hot this year throughout the West and Southeast Valleys. Closings over the past 3 months between $300-400K show 70% of sellers paid the buyers’ closing costs at a median of $10,485, which typically includes some form of mortgage rate buydown to compensate for the increase in rates.

For Sellers

It’s the summer slog for sellers right now. Homes sit longer, fewer new listings enter the MLS, and supply becomes stale. Lack of activity can leave sellers restless and frustrated. Keeping up with the following reports can provide valuable information to help them decide whether to be patient or make a change. While broad Greater Phoenix measures provide some insight, the most useful will be specific to zip code and price point. Here are just a few basic reports available through the Arizona Regional MLS and The Cromford Report that could be helpful:

· Aligned showing reports - Lets sellers know how many showings were conducted in their price range and zip code within any given time frame such as the last week, month, or since they’ve been listed.

· New contracts accepted weekly - Counts how many contracts were accepted in their zip code and price range on a weekly basis. Sometimes no contracts are received for weeks within a certain price range, in which case patience may be the key. Sometimes there may be 3-5 per week; finding out why those properties were picked over all others could reveal what’s in the buyers’ minds. For instance, perhaps the buyers are choosing homes that are larger, have more amenities, or are remodeled.

· Supply counts weekly - Counts how many listings are in their zip code and price point competing for the number of contracts written every week. If supply is rising and weekly contracts are not, it’s time to consult with the listing agent and discuss strategy. If contracts are rising and supply is dropping, then patience may be appropriate.

· Average list price per square foot AT CONTRACT - Identifies a “sweet spot” where listings were priced at the moment a contract was received and accepted. Properties well above this measure need to also be well above average in condition, amenities, and location. For example, a home may be smaller but on a extra large lot or include a separate guest house, which would justify the higher price per square foot.

While these reports can be helpful during the summer lull, they are just a glimpse of what professionals do and track behind the scenes to make recommendations and sell homes. By late September, new listings will start to increase. Staying on top of what the buyers are saying and doing today will help drive strategy and pricing to win a contract. The goal is for your listing to be a comp, not a competitor, by the end of summer.

Mortgage Rates Drift Lower as Fed Signals a Possible September Cut

Last week was one of those weeks where a single event out in the mountains of Wyoming did more for rates than a month of ordinary data. The Jackson Hole symposium stole the show, the bond market had a couple of mood swings, and mortgage rates quietly slid to their lowest point in weeks. Let's break it all down in plain English.

What moved rates this week

The headline event was the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole gathering. Every August, central bankers meet in Wyoming, and markets hang on the Fed's tone about where interest rates are headed. This year the message leaned dovish: Fed leadership acknowledged that the job market is cooling while inflation risks are still simmering — a tricky balancing act — and signaled that the balance of risks "may warrant adjusting" policy. Translation for the rest of us: a rate cut at the September 17 meeting is now firmly on the table.

Markets heard that loud and clear. Futures traders who track Fed moves lifted the odds of a September cut from around 72% to as high as 94% after the remarks. Now, an important reminder here: the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly. What it does influence is the mood of the bond market — and that's where your rate actually comes from.

Speaking of bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield (the number mortgage rates track most closely) had a bumpy ride. Earlier in the week, long-term yields spiked as investors worried about inflation and the size of the federal deficit, with the 10-year climbing back near 4.7%. Then the U.S. Treasury announced it would step up its bond buybacks, which pulled yields down for a bit before they bounced around again. The tug-of-war between inflation worries on one side and rate-cut hopes on the other is exactly why rates have been chopping sideways rather than falling in a straight line.

The net result of all that noise? Mortgage rates actually eased for the second week in a row.

Where rates stand right now

Here's the latest from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released August 20:

30-year fixed: 6.65% — down from 6.67% a week ago
15-year fixed: 5.95% — down from 5.96% a week ago
10-year Treasury yield: hovering in the 4.6%–4.7% range

That marks two straight weekly declines on the 30-year, and it puts us right about where we were a year ago (6.58% last August). Small moves, but they're heading in the friendlier direction.

These figures are illustrative weekly averages and move every single day — sometimes more than once a day. Your actual rate depends on your credit, loan type, down payment, property, and the market at the moment you lock. Reach out for a quote tailored to you.

What it means for you

If you're buying: Rates in the mid-6s are steady enough to plan around, and with a possible Fed cut coming in September, the mood in the bond market is leaning your way. Here in Arizona, the Phoenix and Tucson markets have given buyers more room to negotiate and more inventory to choose from than we've seen in a while. A strong pre-approval lets you move fast and negotiate from a position of confidence.

If you're on the fence: I get it — waiting for the "perfect" rate is tempting. But remember the old truth: you marry the house and date the rate. (I really do dislike this overused phrase, but it is true) If a cut does come in September, refinancing later is straightforward. What you can't get back is the right home if it sells while you're waiting. Let's run your numbers both ways so the decision is based on math, not headlines.

If you're thinking about refinancing: Two weeks of declines is worth a look. If you locked when rates were up in the low 7s, even a modest drop can move your payment. A good rule of thumb is to check whether the monthly savings pays back your closing costs within a reasonable window — I'm happy to run that break-even for you in a few minutes.

If you're an investor: The steadier rate backdrop helps deals pencil out. DSCR loans remain a great tool for financing based on the property's cash flow rather than your personal income, and bank-statement programs are popular with self-employed borrowers. Arizona's rental demand reward investors who have their financing lined up before they make an offer. If you're eyeing a bridge loan to move on the next property before selling the current one, let's map it out.

Bottom line

A dovish Jackson Hole, a September rate cut moving into view, and two straight weeks of easing rates — that's a solid week for anyone with a mortgage on their mind. Nothing dramatic, but the momentum is gentle and in your favor. Rates still move daily, so if you're within a few months of buying, refinancing, or investing, now's a smart time to get your pre-approval refreshed and your numbers ready. Whenever you're ready, I'm here to help — no pressure, just guidance.

Market in a Minute

Housing:

Greater Phoenix is inching slightly more seller-friendly, with the average Cromford® Market Index up 1.9% over the past month, although much of that improvement continues to be driven by Paradise Valley.
Market conditions vary significantly by area. Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, and Scottsdale are showing some of the strongest seller-friendly movement, while Buckeye, Peoria, and Glendale are trending more in buyers’ favor.
The Valley remains a mixed market: Of the 18 cities tracked, 9 are seller’s markets, 3 are balanced, and 6 are buyer’s markets. Gilbert recently moved from balanced into a very mild seller’s market.

Economy:

Fed Rate Cut in Focus: The Federal Reserve struck a more dovish tone at Jackson Hole, pushing expectations higher for a potential rate cut in September.
Job Market Showing Signs of Cooling: A softer labor market is giving the Fed more flexibility to consider lowering rates, although inflation remains an important concern.
Bond Yields Remain Volatile: The 10-year Treasury continues to bounce around as investors weigh inflation and federal deficit concerns against growing expectations for lower Fed rates.

A Quick Insurance Review Could Save You Thousands

I just wanted to share some insurance information that may be worth looking into. If you’re like me and tend to stay with the same insurance company year after year, even as your rates continue to increase, it might be a good time to have Goosehead Insurance review your coverage and shop around for you.

We recently had them evaluate our home, auto, and boat insurance, and they were able to save us thousands of dollars a year without reducing our coverage.

Insurance rates have changed so much over the last few years that I think it’s worth making the call and seeing if there are better options available. Even if you’re happy with your current company, it never hurts to compare! - Sarah Herr, Realtor